2020 U.S. election probabilities: winning party

Former FBI director James Comey delivered what would have been jarring testimony about Donald Trump Thursday had we not already known for certain that the president is a pathological liar.

Or, you know…

OK champ.

One thing I think will be interesting to follow as the Trump administration lurches from one scandal to the next is how it’ll affect the Republican Party’s chances in the 2020 presidential election. Will the slick coating finally wear off Teflon Donald or is American democracy pretty much irredeemable?




Well, at the very least, the Democrats are in the lead at the moment.

A quick reminder about how I arrive at the numbers for these possible outcomes. Rather than relying on opinion polls, I take a market approach by aggregating betting market information and converting it into implied probabilities.

And one more quick reminder: ElectionFutures.com does not charge for subscriptions, but in lieu of that, I’d love it if you’d give the site a follow either on Twitter (by clicking here), on Facebook (by clicking here). 

OK, here’s where we’re at for 2020:

James Gordon is publisher of ElectionFutures.com. You can follow him on Twitter here.



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