NHL Atlantic Division probabilities

The NHL season is a little over a month away, but rookie camps are already almost upon us and full training camps are right behind that. As players start rolling into their respective towns, fans will begin to entertain Stanley Cup dreams and pundits will hit us with a barrage of predictions for the year ahead.




The Atlantic Division should be one of the closer and, as such, more interesting races of the year, with three teams – the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs – being given a realistic shot of taking it.

What follows are the HockeyMarkets.com probabilities for the upcoming season. If you’ve read about any of our probabilities here, you know how this works, but here’s a spiel for the rest:

To arrive at the projected outcomes below, Hockey Markets, as the name would imply, takes a market approach. Typically, markets are better (and faster) at integrating all available information than individuals, and opinions are backed by financial incentives. By aggregating betting market information and converting it into implied probabilities, I believe we can get a better sense of what’s actually going to happen than any hockey insider or “expert” can give us. Do markets get it wrong sometimes? Absolutely. But please do keep in mind these numbers deal in probabilities, not certainties.

To get a sense of how this works, feel free to check out the 2018 Stanley Cup probabilities here (note: since I did those numbers back in June, before the free agency period, there’s been some movement. The Dallas Stars have made a big push upwards, and the Oilers are now, from an odds perspective, the second-most likely team to win the Cup, leapfrogging the Capitals).

OK, so, let’s get an idea of where each team stands right now.

I’m not sure I’m as in love with the Lightning as many others are, and I’m not sure the Bruins are as high, odds-wise, as I’d like to see them, but nothing is too, too out of place here. What are your thoughts?




(File photo of Steven Stamkos by Lisa Gansky, Wikimedia Commons)

James Gordon is publisher of HockeyMarkets.com. Follow him at Twitter.com/James_J_Gordon or befriend him on Facebook here.

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