Earlier, I posted each UK political party’s chances of landing the most seats in Thursday’s federal election. Perhaps not surprisingly (unless you’re a Labour voter), the Tories appear set to run away with things.
While Theresa May is still a good bet to carry on as prime minister following the vote, her position is a little shakier than her party’s.
A quick recap of how I arrived at these possible outcomes. Rather than relying on polls (and aggregators), I’ve aggregated information from betting markets, stripped out the rake, and converted them into probabilities. What you see below is the end result of that process.
As always before we get going: ElectionFutures.com does not, and will never, charge for subscriptions, but in lieu of that, I’d love it if you’d give the site a follow either on Twitter (by clicking here), on Facebook (by clicking here). With U.S. midterms coming up, Donald Trump looming large over the 2020 presidential election, and other international races approaching, there will be plenty to discuss here over the coming months.
OK, onward. Here are the probabilities for next UK prime minister:
1. Theresa May: 80.45 per cent
2. Jeremy Corbyn: 19.55 per cent
So, what’s going on here? If the Tories are close to 90 per cent favourites to win the most seats, why is May hovering around 80 per cent? Well, there are a handful of possibilities. One, there’s an outside shot she could resign after winning and hand the reigns over to someone else in the Conservative party. More likely, the Tories could fail to reach a majority and face the possibility of losing power to a coalition government. Let’s take a closer look at how that might happen. Below are the probabilities for majority governments using the same process I described above…
1. Conservative Majority: 76.23 per cent
2. Labour Majority: 7.95 per cent
3. No Majority 15.82 per cent
Here’s where things get interesting. While a Labour majority is very unlikely, it would certainly mean the end of May’s reign. But what if there were no majority? Well, there have been rumblings that, should Labour win the most seats and the Scottish National Party carry the balance of power, there could be a coalition in the offing.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has mused about the possibility, and her party will almost certainly hold up its end of this fantasy bargain. Bookmakers give the SNP a more than 20 per cent chance of winning every seat in Scotland.