With federal election voting set to take place across the United Kingdom starting Thursday morning, questions still remain regarding whether or not Labour, led by the deeply unpopular Jeremy Corbyn, can somehow pull off a miracle upset against Theresa May’s Conservatives.
What are the chances of that actually happening though?
Well … not great. Although the race appears to be tightening and some polls have Labour and the Tories within a few points of each other, they’re far more likely to give false hope to Labour supporters than they are to portend said miracle.
Below, you can check out the Election Futures probabilities. A quick explanation on how this differs from polling first: We take a real-money, incentive-based approach to possible outcomes by aggregating betting market information and converting odds into implied probabilities. I think it provides a clearer picture of what might actually happen on Thursday.
Last thing before you go on: ElectionFutures.com does not, and will never, charge for subscriptions, but in lieu of that, I’d love it if you’d give the site a follow either on Twitter (by clicking here), on Facebook (by clicking here). With U.S. midterms coming up, Donald Trump looming large over the 2020 presidential election, and other international races approaching, there will be plenty to discuss here over the coming months.
OK, on to the numbers!
The Tories’ lead appears almost insurmountable. The key word here, of course, is almost. The aforementioned Trump, following scandal after scandal during the U.S. election campaign, somehow managed to pull of a win despite most polls (and polling aggregators) giving him a little more than a 10 per cent chance of winning against Hillary Clinton.
The reason I’m more confident in a Tory win here? To my knowledge, betting markets were never as pessimistic about Trump’s chances as the polls were. That said, when you’re dealing with probabilities, the most likely outcome isn’t always the one that appears when all the votes are counted.
James Gordon is publisher of ElectionFutures.com. You can follow him on Twitter here.